HOLT, Fla, June 18, 2017 (as of 8 a.m. EDT)–The tropical waves near the Gulf of Mexico and in the Atlantic Ocean continue to develop.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands.
Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before environmental conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
This system is forecast to move to the west-northwest at near 20 mph toward the Windward Islands and northeastern South America during the next two days, and interests in these areas should monitor its progress.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Monday, if necessary.
Formation chance through 48 hours has increased to 50 percent. However, continued formation chance through five days has been reduced to from 70 to 50 percent.
In the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the broad area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is expected while it moves slowly northwestward across the peninsula later today and over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today if necessary.
Formation chance through the next 48 hours has been increased to 60 percent with a high chance of further development during the next five days at 90 percent.